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China could launch a “bolt from the blue” attack designed to catch US and Taiwanese forces unawares.Īlternatively, tensions in other aspects of the US-China relationship might convince Beijing of the likelihood of a change in the US stance toward Taiwan, leading to a pre-emptive attack.įinally (and least likely) Taiwan might attempt to make its independence an accomplished fact, which most analysts believe would incur Chinese military intervention. Taiwan air force ground crew run to a US-made F-16V fighter for an emergency takeoff during an exercise in southern Taiwan, January 15, 2020.Ī war could begin in several different ways. Some in Congress have now called for an end to this policy, and for more full-throated support of Taiwan’s international position. This “strategic ambiguity” was designed to remove the incentive for Taiwan to declare independence while not giving China an excuse to invade. The United States maintained a studied ambiguity towards Taiwan for the past 40 years as it developed a strong economic relationship with the People’s Republic of China. The potential for miscalculation is immense. At the same time, China’s military remains untested, and an amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait would constitute one of the most sophisticated military operations in history.
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Over the past year, long-simmering US concern over the Chinese threat to Taiwan has seemed to come to a boil.Ĭhinese military capabilities have grown rapidly over the past decade, and now constitute a major obstacle against US intervention. Taiwanese navy frigate Yi Yang fires an anti-submarine missile during a drill near Hualien, Taiwan, May 22, 2019. 5 places World War III could erupt: Taiwan The use of any of these tools, especially if they show some success on the ground, could lead to a confrontation between Moscow and Washington. This includes economic sanctions against Russia, cyberattacks against Russian infrastructure, the transfer of weapons to Ukraine, and the sharing of real-time intelligence with Ukrainian forces. However, the US can support Kyiv in several ways without direct intervention. Despite improvements in Ukrainian forces, most analysts expect that Russia would win quick victories along the border, potentially gaining access to the Ukrainian heartland.ĭirect Russian military action would put immense pressure on the United States to respond in some fashion. If Russia launches an invasion of Ukraine things could get ugly quickly. The United States and NATO have not responded positively to these overtures but have notably failed to guarantee Ukraine’s security. Russia has publicly argued that it wants to resolve the issues of Ukraine and of Russia’s relationship with NATO on a permanent basis. Moscow’s long-range problem is its inability to reverse the Western orientation that Kyiv has adopted since 2014. Russia’s immediate concerns involve the Ukrainian acquisition and use of Turkish drones along its border regions, along with a general increase in Ukrainian military power. Over the past six months, Russia has steadily built up forces along the frontier as Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington have traded barbs. Ukrainian troops from Donbass battalion train with small arms outside Mariupol, Ukraine, March 13, 2015.Įasily the most likely flashpoint for great power war in 2022 lies along the border between Russia and Ukraine.